Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
